What is it?
The purpose of the Coin Crash Alert service is to provide a unique, cutting-edge tool to assist in protecting cryptocurrency community members against potential crash events or significant downside price movements in the cryptocurrency universe.

Coin Crash Alert service also functions as a complimentary addition to the fully automated trading service offered by the Nordic Crypto Blackbox.

The Coin Crash Alert is a predictive model based on a proprietary mathematical algorithm, developed and deployed by Nordic Crypto. Coin Crash Alert algorithm can be effectively used as a means for a broad based crash protection in the cryptocurrency community.

The predictive quality of the model allows a wide spectrum of cryptocurrency market participants to make better timed decisions, be in it in considering a new cryptocurrency acquisition or re-adjusting existing crypto asset holdings.

In a time period spanning back to 2013, actively tracked cryptocurrencies have generated 54 Coin Crash Alerts, with about 65% of these alerts resulting in significant moves lower and downside corrections ranging up to 66% from alert days. The key alert metrics have are as summarized in the below table:

 

Bitcoin Ether Litecoin Ripple Dash Monero Zcash Summary
Total crash alerts 14 6 11 7 6 7 3 54  crash alerts
Crash ratio 71% 67% 55% 57% 50% 86% 67% 65% probability
Max downside -66% -61% -61% -76% -18% -54% -49% 58% avg maximum
Avg downside -22% -41% -23% -40% -13% -29% -47% 28% average crash
Avg days 17 52 15 34 2 13 17 21 avg days
Algorithm
The Coin Crash Alert algorithm follows a rule-based, statistical model. The model utilizes a powerful set of formulations that simultaneously track price movements and the delta in specific time intervals. Once an alert signal has been generated, the algorithm looks for and identifies potentially large downside corrections, within otherwise upward trending cryptocurrencies.

Unlike many comparable services, which “declare” a sell-off or a crash after the fact, Coin Crash Alert derives it alert signals from a unique and predictive analytical framework. This allows for the service recipients to be prepared for and ready for a potential crash before their cryptocurrency holdings have been unduly effected.

Historical results

Coin Crash Alert algorithm has historical archive of crash signals going back to early 2013.

In the 7 most traded cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Dash, Monero, Zcash and Ethereum Classic, in the period of 2013-2018, 54 Coin Crash Alerts have so far been generated.

On average, 65% of Coin Crash Alerts across the board have subsequently resulted in significant downside moves. Among these successful alerts, the range of the downside moves have been up to 66%. Below are the detailed, coin-specific results of the 7 most active coins, as traded and priced against USD.

Cryptocurrency Pair Crash alert Alert Price Low price  Days  in decline  % decline
Zcash ZEC-USD 16/01/2018 513,7 262,3 21 -49%
Ripple XRP-USD 08/01/2018 2,5 0,6 29 -76%
Ethereum ETH-USD 22/12/2017 674,9 674,9 0 N/A
Litecoin LTC-USD 22/12/2017 264,9 264,9 0 N/A
Dash DASH-USD 06/12/2017 700,1 667,8 1 -5%
Ethereum ETH-USD 29/11/2017 427,5 427,5 0 N/A
Litecoin LTC-USD 29/11/2017 85,6 85,6 0 N/A
Zcash ZEC-USD 29/11/2017 306,1 306,1 0 N/A
Bitcoin BTC-USD 08/09/2017 4.228,8 2.946,6 7 -30%
Dash DASH-USD 02/09/2017 350,2 286,5 3 -18%
Ethereum ETH-USD 02/09/2017 349,0 195,0 13 -44%
Zcash ZEC-USD 02/09/2017 254,0 138,7 13 -45%
Ethereum ETH-USD 25/06/2017 303,3 227,1 2 -25%
Monero XMR-USD 12/06/2017 50,0 38,8 3 -23%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 07/03/2017 1.223,5 903,7 18 -26%
Monero XMR-USD 24/02/2017 11,9 11,7 2 -2%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 09/02/2017 994,4 946,7 1 -5%
Dash DASH-USD 24/01/2017 14,1 14,1 0 N/A
Dash DASH-USD 11/01/2017 11,3 11,3 0 N/A
Monero XMR-USD 11/01/2017 11,6 9,9 4 -15%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 05/01/2017 1.013,4 755,8 7 -25%
Litecoin LTC-USD 05/01/2017 4,3 3,6 2 -16%
Ripple XRP-USD 05/01/2017 0,0062 0,0062 0 N/A
Litecoin LTC-USD 03/11/2016 3,9 3,7 10 -4%
Monero XMR-USD 29/09/2016 8,7 4,3 30 -51%
Monero XMR-USD 26/09/2016 9,4 4,3 33 -54%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 07/07/2016 640,6 640,6 0 N/A
Bitcoin BTC-USD 21/06/2016 666,7 558,1 2 -16%
Ethereum ETH-USD 17/06/2016 15,4 6,0 172 -61%
Litecoin LTC-USD 19/05/2016 3,8 3,8 0 N/A
Ethereum ETH-USD 05/04/2016 10,4 7,1 21 -32%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 26/12/2015 417,3 417,3 0 N/A
Litecoin LTC-USD 26/12/2015 3,4 3,4 0 N/A
Monero XMR-USD 26/12/2015 0,4467 0,4 0 N/A
Bitcoin BTC-USD 20/12/2015 442,7 405,8 6 -8%
Litecoin LTC-USD 20/12/2015 3,5 3,4 2 -4%
Litecoin LTC-USD 12/12/2015 3,6 3,6 0 N/A
Ripple XRP-USD 04/11/2015 0,0049 0,0040 28 -18%
Ripple XRP-USD 14/09/2015 0,0074 0,0040 79 -45%
Litecoin LTC-USD 10/07/2015 4,5 3,7 1 -18%
Ripple XRP-USD 26/04/2015 0,0077 0,0077 0 N/A
Dash DASH-USD 10/03/2015 3,0 3,0 0 N/A
Ripple XRP-USD 08/12/2014 0,0134 0,0134 0 N/A
Monero XMR-USD 07/07/2014 2,0 1,5 6 -27%
Dash DASH-USD 02/05/2014 1,4 1,1 1 -16%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 25/04/2014 461,5 422,9 3 -8%
Litecoin LTC-USD 25/04/2014 10,8 6,8 71 -37%
Litecoin LTC-USD 16/12/2013 24,6 9,6 2 -61%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 05/12/2013 1.045,1 351,3 127 -66%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 01/12/2013 955,9 955,9 0 N/A
Bitcoin BTC-USD 19/11/2013 584,6 448,5 1 -23%
Ripple XRP-USD 19/11/2013 0,0072 0,0 1 -21%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 24/10/2013 198,2 168,5 1 -15%
Bitcoin BTC-USD 18/07/2013 90,6 90,6 0 N/A

 

Assumptions
The historical results and statements are based on the following asumptions and notes:

  • Algorithmic price calculations are done using End-of-Day (EoD) price data, provided by coinmarketcap.com, which effectively aggregate all relevant market prices. Individual prices from one exchange to another can and will vary.
  • Historical back-test calculations are made using the same EoD price data.
  • Alert signals are generated using the respective USD-pairings for the cryptocurrencies.
  • The historical backtest analyses are, at the present time, conducted on 7 cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, DASH, ZEC and XMR, each one as traded against USD.
  • A selection criteria for a coin to be included in the historical back-test results is there to be at the least 5 past signals. This filter effectively removes coins that are not well established yet or are too immature in terms of current lifespan.
  • In determining the alert results, 5 trading days subsequent to the generation of the alert signal are closely analyzed. If no significant move lower is detected, as defined by the daily closing prices in relation to the alert price, the alert signal is deemed as being of poor quality.
  • Calculation made on prices from www.coinmarketcap.com

Q&A

Is Coin Crash Alert a trading recommendation service?
No, Coin Crash Alert service is not intended as a trading recommendation service, nor are the crash alerts intended to be interpreted as selling recommendations.
What is the Coin Crash Alert?
The Coin Crash Alert is a predictive model based on a proprietary mathematical algorithm, designed to give cryptocurrency community members a unique, protective tool in managing their respective current or future cryptocurrency holdings.
Who is the Coin Crash Alert for?
Coin Crash Alert is intended for use for a very wide spectrum of cryptocurrency community, ranging from individual cryptocurrency enthusiasts to larger speculative market participants and long term investors.

Whether the involved part is an individual cryptocurrency enthusiast, who has made or is looking to make a small cryptocurrency acquisition,  or a dedicated cryptocurrency hedge fund, the predictive nature of the models affords a unique type of crash protection not readily available in the current market place.

Can the Coin Crash Alert provide an edge for investors and traders?
Yes, using Coin Crash Alerts will provide a significant edge to both cryptocurrency investors, who are invested in a portfolio of broader cryptocurrency assets with a longer time horizon, as well as traders, who are taking buying and selling decisions on a shorter time horizon.

The ability to be prepared for potential significant downside corrections in otherwise upward trending cryptocurrencies will provide an advantage both in terms of timing new acquisitions as well as protecting the current holdings.

How many coins do you provide crash alerts for?
The algorithm behind the Coin Crash Alert analyses on continuous basis all top-traded cryptocurrencies from a broad universe of cryptocurrencies. Once the selection criteria for a prospective coin is fulfilled, it is subsequently added to the active tracker list.

At the present time, 7 cryptocurrencies are actively tracked and covered: BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, DASH, ZEC and XMR, with each of these coin as traded against USD.